Never before have we seen more upsets after four rounds

It’s official, there has never been a more unpredictable first four rounds of an AFL season. After four rounds (36 games), 19 underdogs have been victorious at a win rate of 52.78%.

As can be seen in the table below, in the history of AFL betting since 1996, the previously held record of underdogs winning in the first 36 matches of a season was back in 2000, with 47.22%. But this 2019 season has taken the early upsets cake…

AFL Underdog (UD) wins after first 36 matches since 1996


What does this mean?

Well, firstly, it means that if you had simply put 10 dollars on the underdog in every match this season, you’d be several hundred dollars ahead (the average underdog winning odds have been 2.85). But, gambling aside, it basically means that season 2019 is thus far an anomaly, and you should keep faith in your tipping ability. If your workplace tipping comp is being led by someone who knows nothing about footy, let them have their probably won’t last long!


Paul P Mark